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Imagine this…

You’re about to drop some serious cash on a new marketing campaign.

So it’s pretty understandable that your team suggests running a test first.

After all, you should make data-driven decisions, right? Right???

Wrong, according to one team member.

Brad, your agency’s lead strategist, waves off testing because of one reason…

“This is a proven strategy,” Brad says confidently, arms crossed like he’s about to drop some Socratic wisdom.

“We’ve done it before, and the 2022 campaign’s numbers were unbelievably good. Trust me,” he says before grabbing his jacket and walking out of the conference room like the end scene in The Breakfast Club.

You mull over what he said—but more importantly, who he is.

Sure, the strategy worked wonders once.

But last year, he pushed a nearly identical approach, and it bombed.

Still, you remind yourself that Brad has 15 years of experience, a Harvard Business Review feature, and more confidence than your uncle relaying the latest conspiracy theory.

So the team follows his lead and runs the campaign.

The results start trickling in, and there’s no other way to slice the data...

The campaign flopped. Hard.

Why did you trust Brad when testing was the logical choice?

In today’s edition of Why We Buy 🧠 we’ll explore the Seer-Sucker Theory—why we put so much faith in “experts”—even when they’re wrong.

Let’s get into it.
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🧠 The Psychology of the Seer-Sucker Theory

"No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers."

That’s the core of the Seer-Sucker Theory, coined by Professor J. Scott Armstrong.

This theory highlights our willingness to believe “experts’” predictions—even when there’s little-to-no evidence they’re more accurate than chance.

It happens because our brains crave shortcuts.

Decision-making is exhausting, so we offload thinking to authority figures—assuming their expertise makes them reliable.

The problem?

Even experts get it wrong—a lot.

Psychologist Philip Tetlock’s research supported this.

He found that political experts were only slightly better than chance at predicting world events—about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys (lol).

So… why does it keep happening?

Armstrong’s research suggests people still consult experts for two main reasons:

1. People like to shift blame in case of failure
2. People prefer an authoritative opinion over admitting uncertainty

Your customers are the same—they view you and others in your industry as experts.

And if you don’t give them clear, data-backed reasons to trust and buy from you, they’ll fall for the loudest voice in the room instead—and become a “sucker.”
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🤑 How To Apply This

Alright, so how can you apply this right now to sell more?

SaaS​
​Highlight concrete results

Sure, we trust “seers” to guide our decisions—especially when uncertainty is high.

But the real persuaders? Peers with firsthand results.

So instead of relying solely on industry experts or stats to hype your product, highlight real customers who’ve already achieved sought-after wins.

Zapier nails this by featuring hyper-specific automation success stories instead of taking a generic “expert-endorsed” approach.

(Not sure how to get customer reviews this good? Check out our Clarity Call Cheatsheets—they’ll show you how to ask the right Qs that get *mic drop* responses.)

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eCommerce​
​Back up desirable claims with clear evidence

The best brands don’t just say they’re doing X, Y, and Z—they prove it.

Instead of vaguely saying they make “sustainable clothing,” Patagonia backs it up by detailing the recycled materials used to make items (in a Fair Trade Certified factory on top of it).

They don’t even stop there.

Patagonia builds trust by highlighting their commitment to environmental activism and backing their claims with data on carbon footprints.
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​Agencies​
​Make it safe to disagree

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, is famous for its radical transparency culture.

Employees are encouraged to question leadership, challenge assumptions, and openly debate decisions, which prevents groupthink.

By showcasing their approach, Bridgewater enhances their credibility and clients can feel confident Bridgewater can make better long-term investment decisions because they rely on the best idea—not the title associated with it.
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💥 The Short of It

We tend to put too much faith in “experts’” predictions (here’s why)—even when they’re not backed by facts.

So how do you beat the Seer-Sucker Theory?

• Highlight concrete results
• Back up claims with rock-solid proof
• Encourage pushback in business discussions to build trust and credibility​

Because at the end of the day, expertise is only valuable if it actually helps customers make better decisions.
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​Until next time, happy selling!

With ❤️ from Katelyn and Jordyn​

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